TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, finds that the U.S. economy added 92,000 jobs in August. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that the U.S. economy lost 84,000 jobs in August.
We believe the BLS estimates are wrong. Due to its flawed methodology, the BLS is missing the current pop in employment caused by the rapid decline in crude oil prices. The sectors of the economy that are still hiring are government, education and health care and companies that export goods and services.
The uptick in employment this past month does not mean that the U.S. economy has hit bottom and is exiting the current downturn. In all likelihood, last month’s positive employment growth will disappear as corporations respond to declining consumption cash due to the lack of home equity, tough credit conditions and high energy prices.